Free Download The Fourth Turning: An American Prophecy
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The Fourth Turning: An American Prophecy
Free Download The Fourth Turning: An American Prophecy
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Audible Audiobook
Listening Length: 6 hours and 5 minutes
Program Type: Audiobook
Version: Abridged
Publisher: Bantam Doubleday Dell Audio
Audible.com Release Date: December 7, 2001
Language: English
ASIN: B00005UPTV
Amazon Best Sellers Rank:
I'll spare you the summary of the book by simply telling you to read the top reviews of the book by previous Amazon reviewers or go to wikipedia or the authors eponymous website where you'll learn about generational archetypes (e.g. Silent, Boomers, Gen Xers, Millennials), cycles or turnings (High, Awakening, Unraveling, Crisis) like seasons, and how they contextualize within our past & current Western / Anglo-American history.I first read this book right after the 2008 financial crisis - some 11 years after it came out - trying to find clues about how the collapse came about & how it compared to past crisis like the crash of 1929, as well as understanding whether there was some societal 'lessons learned' from past events (recent & more dated) in order to prepare for the future.Needless to say it has been a LIFE CHANGING READ & experience & every so often I come back to read chapters of it as a guidebook.The reason isn't because it is the best written book in the world, it isn't. Nor is it because the political leanings of mine are in line with Strauss/Neil Howe's beliefs (who clearly are more right leaning in the political spectrum). Nor is it because I fully subscribe to the simplifications of generational theory laid out in the book (classifying each horde 20-year span of people into generations & drawing sweeping claims about how they collectively behave - some of it seems to become true, some not so - e.g. the author's characterization of Millennials is just too broad & uniform which I really don't see panning out these days especially. Silents & Boomers characterizations are spot on, that of Gen Xers is maybe 75-25% right, while Millennials oversimplification is 50% accurate at best).The life changing aspect of this book is in the 'elegant' way (almost as beautifully enlightening as a mathematical equation or scientific theory except in this case it is all about looking back at our historical past & drawing conclusions for the present and future, somewhat very accurately that it sort of reminds you of a theory, an elegant one - obviously without being one since this book is often misconstrued as a voodoo thinking prophecy - which it isn't - believe me I was skeptical about reading it at first back in 2008).The authors have laid out a sort of handbook on the historical patterns/conflicts with outcomes & guidelines on how to best position yourself within such conflicting times, looking at our modern Anglo-American empire for the past few centuries since Renaissance. Of greatest importance is the fact that this 80-year or so pattern can be seen with great accuracy since the American Revolution, The Civil War, WWII and extrapolated with eerie accuracy to 2016, i.e today.Since it was written in 1997, the 2008 financial crash came to light (79 years after the crash of 1929 - as mentioned within the book sometime around the year 2005 - 2010).And 8 years later, in the midst of what Strauss & Howe call the "Crisis" or our current Fourth Turning - a 20 year or so time-span that will redefine today's American empire - the 2016 presidential election is a perfect reminder of the prescience of this book - an election where anti-establishment campaigns both on the left and right became the topic "du jour".As of end of May 2016, Iit seems like Donald Trump is going to be the nominee on the Republican ticket for this election year - whether he becomes president will largely rely on whether Clinton becomes the Democratic nominee or not. If Hillary Clinton becomes the nominee, Trump will probably become president given Hillary's all-time high "unfavorables" among Republicans/Independents/Progressives electorate, given the historical patterns laid out in this book - an electorate unwilling to back a seriously flawed establishment Clinton candidate with her ongoing criminal FBI investigation.If Sanders becomes the nominee, there is a chance given how polls currently show that he beats Trump by double digit & is likely to be doing so in November 2016 since he is the only remaining candidate as of May 2016, with positive favorables & has been tested throughout the primary nomination season by a ruthless corporate media (both on the Left - decried as "crazy/pie in the sky" and on the Right - decried as "socialist tyrant") & DNC machine against him. If Bernie Sanders wins the presidency, he would likely look like an FDR type "grey champion" as presciently predicted by the book back in 1997 (though not technically a boomer, he does act like one - obviously the generational aspect of this book isn't fully on point to my liking).If Trump becomes the president, a dark age might take over America given his fascist tendencies - just my opinion, reviewers might disagree.Either way, a Trump or Sanders presidency will fully crystallize the climax of the Fourth Turning with probably yet another violent financial/economic crash before or right after their election given how we currently live in a debt-induced crony capitalistic model where the financial & corporate owners buy elections, fake recoveries, and in the end induce a greater reset every 3-4 generations... The year 2016 is a perfect storm worldwide and in the US especially...But If for some reason (e.g. election irregularities) Clinton wins the presidency, she will usher a destructive escalation with Russia over Syria's no-fly zone which could potentially set off a nuclear warfare with unknown outcomes... This scenario would play out well too with the Fourth Turning posits.Shortly after 2016, in the late 2010s or early 2020s, a global conflict in the scale of the American Revolution, Civil War or WWII will arise & test the mettle of its leader. This book is a great read & might give clues in how to best prepare yourself & protect your family when a conflict of that scale erupts.A great & very important read for those interested in modern history & politics in any case - especially for Millennials (who interestingly vote en masse for Sanders or Trump depending on their political inclinations) since they will play an important role in this ongoing fourth turning!
This is the kind of book I should ordinarily despise. It contains a broad arc of history viewed internally and is epic in the worst way possible. And yet, it is incredibly compelling for two reasons: (i) there is something to be said for viewing history from the perspective of generational change and (ii) the prediction made in the book (written in 1998) that we will enter a time of crisis around 2005 give or take a few years was spot on. In addition, minor points should be given for turning the spotlight on the financial world as the catalyst for the crisis of 2008.In a nutshell, the book advances the view that history roughly repeats itself every 80 years. Further, every 80 year period is characterized by the arrival of Artists (silent generation in this cycle), Prophets (boomers), Nomads (Gen Xers) and Heroes (millennials). Previous incarnations of this cycle ended with the war of independence, the civil war and world war II. This naturally sets up the denouement for this cycle which the authors expect to occur in the 2025 time frame. Each cycle is divided into turnings: the present one is characterized by First (High: 1946-1964), Second (Awakening: 1964-1984), Third (Unraveling: 1984-2008) and Fourth (Crisis: 2008-202X). From the book's perspective and Neil Howe's subsequent blog posts, we entered the Fourth Turning in 2008. There's nothing spooky or mystical about these cycles and turnings: instead the authors stress that human nature and culture seem to have these rhythms and that Anglo-American history is stable enough to be characterized in this manner. Other cultures may either be too stable or too chaotic to follow this type of pattern.Prior to the arrival of Donald Trump and despite the eerie portend of the financial crisis, I would have dismissed this book. Now, it looks positively prophetic. Is there any doubt now that the combination of (i) income inequality, (ii) the economic problems of the white working class, (iii) the culture wars, (iv) multiculturalism and globalism, (v) the ravages of identity politics and postmodernism and (vi) terrorism is not going to be a combustible mix over the next decade? And that these will simultaneously distract us from combating global warming - the clear threat of the next era? While I find it hard to buy into the notion that the US will face an existential crisis (as predicted by the book), there's definitely merit in the view that the next ten years will probably have the capability of shocking us however jaded we may be at the present time.
Overall, this book was very good, thorough and well-written. The only complaint I have is that it gets pretty repetitive at various points. I understand that this is to drive home the point and to relate the past to the present, but at some points, it seemed like just filler.The content of this book is astounding. I just picked it up this year (2018) and the book was written over two decades ago. The breakdown in American politics and society that the authors mention for the unraveling era are alive and present. The older boomer generation pushing for "action" and wanting the young to dedicate themselves toward a path of war is ever present (even after two seemingly never ending wars in the last 13 years). There were some predictions that were wrong, such as the spirit of the millennial group, but all in all, it's a frighteningly accurate prediction.The authors give good ideas on how we can prepare for the 4th Turning bother socio-politically and on an individual level. I'm not holding my breath on society preparing itself and I have even less hope for politicians to do so. Preparation is for the individual as far as I'm concerned.This is the kind of book that you want to share with everyone you care about and even with the public in general, but unfortunately it's not something most people will care about until it's too late.If you're thinking of getting this book, get it asap, try to complete it within a month's time, share it with those you care about and then make a plan of action to ready yourself for the 4th Turning.
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